How to break the balance in the hottest Shanghai R

How to break the balance of Shanghai glue Market

the price of Shanghai glue experienced a sharp rebound last week and then fell back, rebounding from the price around 16700 to around 17500, and then fell back to around 16700. On Friday, in March, the price of Shanghai glue closed at 17015, in the balance area of the price fluctuation range. The strong trend of Tokyo rubber has not led to the synchronous strengthening of Shanghai rubber, which is related to the high price of domestic rubber and the further shrinking of the production volume of the first phase of Zhonghao chemical new material base project. Some domestic factories that purchase domestic rubber have terminated the purchase of domestic rubber, but the shrinking volume and energy does not mean the complete stagnation of sales, The innovative manufacturing process of the last batch of rubber products has greatly reduced the emission of carbon dioxide (as shown in the figure below) by 2000 tons, indicating that the demand still exists objectively in the market, which determines the dilemma between the rise and fall of domestic rubber under the background of limited total volume

the strong trend of the external market is supported by three factors: first, the extension of the rainy season, the rainfall in southern Thailand is still not over, resulting in the pressure of high production period being postponed again. According to the weather forecast, songka will still maintain thunderstorm weather at the beginning of next week, and the rainfall has affected the supply of raw materials; The second is the depreciation of the yen, which once fell to around 121 and closed at 120.51. The depreciation of the yen led to the rise of Tokyo glue, which was significantly stronger than the spot price trend in Southeast Asia; The third is crude oil. The continuous rebound in crude oil prices prompted the fund to push up the price in the Tokyo rubber market. These three factors together led to the benchmark contract of Tokyo rubber hitting the 200 yen mark

we believe that the pressure of high production period is postponed due to the extension of the rainy season. Based on the excellent performance of new aluminum materials, the spot price in Southeast Asia does not have the conditions for a sharp rise in the short term, and the demand is weak in the fourth quarter. Spot traders generally hold the mentality of waiting for high production period, so Tokyo rubber may continue to rebound in the short term, but it is difficult to continue. Among the above three factors, the weather determines the significance, and the latter two are hype topics. If the rainy season lasts until late December, problems may occur, and the expectation of high production period needs to be revised. At present, the market's consideration of the pressure of high production period cannot be ignored, which will affect the market behavior of rubber merchants

whether the short-term Tokyo rubber can reach a new high determines the space for Shanghai rubber to expand above 17000. From a rational point of view, in terms of the current sales situation of domestic rubber, the space for Shanghai rubber to expand above 17000 is limited, so the rise must be driven by the strong trend of Tokyo rubber; On the contrary, taking the price of Vietnam glue 16600 as the standard, the falling space of domestic glue is also relatively limited. Only the benchmark contract of Tokyo glue breaks through 200 yen again, which really forms a phased decline. Under the pressure of panic closing, Shanghai glue is likely to fall below 16700 again. The price comparison of spot prices is always dynamic. At present, the price of Vietnam glue 16600 we see is because the external price is high, We can see that there is still a sales market for domestic rubber at present, also because the external market is at a high level. If the international market price falls, the pressure of high-level sales of domestic rubber will further increase, so the most critical thing is the next trend of the international market, and the most critical place of the trend depends on the weather. However, considering that Malaysia and Indonesia may enter high production in December and January, the probability of spot rubber price rising against the market is small, Strong may benefit the country and the people for a while. In terms of operation, it is recommended not to follow the rise and kill the fall. If there is a rebound opportunity, the idea of selling short at high prices should still be maintained. (Dongyin Futures: meiyuntao)

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