On July 7, the steel market strengthened and the h

2022-05-16
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Steel market forecast on the 7th: the strength of futures and snails, and the hot coil is rising

I. macro briefing

1. Federal Reserve: banks are still unwilling to relax mortgage standards. The Federal Reserve released its latest report on Monday that banks are still reluctant to relax mortgage standards, which may pose a threat to the nascent recovery of the U.S. housing market

2. Australia may lower its economic growth forecast. According to Wall Street on the 6th, citing local media reports in Australia, the Australian Treasury may have lowered its forecast for domestic economic growth in this fiscal year and the next fiscal year. It is reported that the Ministry of the Treasury will cut its GDP growth forecast by 0.25% for the current fiscal year and fiscal year as of June 30, and now it is expected that the GDP growth rate of this fiscal year and the next fiscal year will be 2.75%

3. The State Council deployed nine key points of economic system reform this year. The meeting determined to strengthen reform in key areas and key links such as administrative system, finance and taxation, finance, investment and financing, price, high and low temperature impact experimental machine air circulation device: People's livelihood, urban and rural planning, agriculture and rural areas, science and technology and so on

in April and April, the new loans of the four major banks were less than 250 billion, and the supervision paid attention to the hidden risks. By the end of March, the balance of non-performing loans of Chinese commercial banks had further climbed to 524.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, an increase of 33.9 billion yuan over the beginning of the year, and had rebounded for six consecutive quarters

the trading volume of residential land in 300 cities in China fell in May and April. According to the relevant monitoring data released by the data information center of an index Research Institute on the 6th, 300 cities in China intensively launched residential land in April, but its trading volume showed a downward trend. In April this year, China's 300 cities launched 882 residential land (including residential land and comprehensive land including residential land), totaling 36.89 million square meters, an increase of 32% over the previous month; There were 635 transactions and 25.64 million square meters, with a month on month decrease of 18% and 21% respectively

II. Relevant disk summary

the US stock market closed mixed on Monday. The S & P index hit another record closing and intraday high. Last Friday, the S & P 500 index broke through 1600 points and the Dow index broke through 15000 points, both reaching record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.07 points, or 0.03%, to 14968.89; The standard & Poor's 500 index rose 3.08 points, or 0.19%, to 1617.50. Gold futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.8 to close at $1468 an ounce. Crude oil futures for delivery in June rose $0.55 to close at $96.16 a barrel. Yesterday, the LME market will be closed due to the British banking holiday. Last Friday, the closing price of LME copper was 7265 yuan/ton

III. billet price trend

on the morning of the 7th: Tangshan Pufang billet reported stability yesterday, and it was delivered to 3190 in Changli this morning. Tangshan Xinglong/Guoyi factory 3170 includes tax; The naked price of traders is about 3040

IV. ore price trend

yesterday, the domestic ore market was weak, and the supply and demand factors were deadlocked; The imported ore market is weak and stable. Steel mills have more inquiries but less purchases. There is still a big gap in China's sealing machine industry, and the atmosphere is strong. The mainstream market price of 66% acid powder dry basis in Tangshan is 1090 yuan. At present, the mainstream quotation of 63.5/63% Indian fine ore in the external market of imported ore is about US $118. The price of 63.5% Indian fine ore in Tianjin port is 950 yuan/ton; The quotation of 61.5% PB fine ore in Qingdao port is 910 yuan/ton

v. coke price trend

yesterday, some coke prices in East China fell weakly. In terms of short-term coking plants, most of them focus on secretly dropping shipments. The inventory of most coke enterprises in Shanxi has decreased, while the price of coke enterprises in Hebei is weak and stable, and the inventory is small; It is estimated that the price reduction range of coke enterprises in the later stage is limited. At present, the first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 1380 yuan/ton; The ex factory tax price of quasi grade I metallurgical coke is 1330 yuan; Hebei Handan area secondary metallurgical coke 1390 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Huaibei area is 1320 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Zibo area is 1330 yuan

VI. the closing price of thread hot coil

on May 6, the closing price of 25mm grade III thread steel in Beijing market was 3610 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton compared with the price of the previous day; The price of grade III deformed steel bars in Shanghai market was 3520 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of the day before yesterday; The price of grade III deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market was 3750 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of the day before yesterday

at the closing on May 6, the closing price of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market was 3680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the price of the previous day; The closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was 3550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the price of the previous day; Lecong hot coil market closed at 3780 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the price of the day before yesterday

On May 6, the main contract 1310 of thread futures opened higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, opening at 3630 yuan. After opening, it was shaken and sorted out, with a maximum of 3650 yuan and a minimum of 3610 yuan. Finally, it closed at 3622 yuan, up 43 yuan compared with the previous trading day. Trading volume: the resource volume of biosynthesis is as high as 10 billion tons to 100 billion tons every year, shrinking compared with the previous trading day, and the position is increased by 78312 hands. It is estimated that today's price pressure point is 3660 yuan/ton and the support point is 3590 yuan/ton

on May 6, rb1307, the main contract of hot coil electronic disk, opened at 3680 yuan. After opening, it was shaken and sorted out. The highest was 3700 yuan, the lowest was 3650 yuan, and finally closed at 3655 yuan, up 18 yuan compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 177760 hands, enlarged compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 163120 hands, an increase of 9620 hands. It is estimated that today's price pressure point is 3690 yuan/ton and the support point is 3600 yuan/ton

VIII. Spot price forecast

it is estimated that the price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar in Beijing market today is stable, at 3610 yuan/ton; The quotation of grade III deformed steel bar in Shanghai market increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3540 yuan/ton; The market price of grade III rebar in Guangzhou market is stable, and the quotation is 3750 yuan/ton

it is estimated that the mainstream quotation of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market today will rise by 10 yuan/ton to about 3690 yuan/ton; The listing price of hot coil in Tianjin market increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3560 yuan/ton; Lecong's hot coil market quotation is stable, and the market quotation is about 3780 yuan/ton

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